615 Brazey Rd · Monticello, GA 31064

$159,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1980 1.09 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 615 Brazey Rd in Monticello-a property full of charm, opportunity, and endless potential, tucked away in a quiet and peaceful country setting. Whether you're searching for your next renovation project, an investment opportunity, or a place to create your dream home from the ground up, this property offers a rare chance to bring your vision to life. Set on a spacious lot surrounded by natural beauty, this property provides the kind of privacy and tranquility that's hard to find. Enjoy the slower pace of country living, with plenty of room to expand, garden, entertain, or simply unwind and take in the scenic surroundings. The setting alone makes this property truly special. The hom

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Endless potential
• Fixer-upper

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• FIXER-UPPER
• ENDLESS POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $665 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $157k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#16 in GA, #2,229 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D+, commute F.
• Jasper County (rural): math 24% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #113 of 174 in GA (top 65%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jasper County Middle School (math 20% / reading 28%, grade F, #311 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 630 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 174 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $159k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,615 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.94%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $128,932
• Equity at exit: $143,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $346,266
• Equity at exit: $308,902

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31064

• Home prices YoY: 16.0%
• Active inventory: 174
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $905/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $665

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,235

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-23
   price $159,000
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $170,000 New
4. 2021-09-24
   soldstatus $56,900
5. 2004-04-07
   soldstatus $76,800
6. 1998-10-28
   soldstatus $70,700
7. 1996-12-09
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $905 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,463 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$46/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$905
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $5,705
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,369
• After-tax cash flow: $6,616/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper County
• NCES district ID: 1302970
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,606
• Composite: 22.99/100
• National rank: #7980
• State rank: #113 of 174 in GA

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #2229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,859

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,020 people
• By 2030: 12,538 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 11,355 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 9,955 · -23.5%
• By 2075: 6,646 · -49.0%
• By 2100: 4,022 · -69.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.4) · D 20.6% · R 79.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -58.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.4 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+46.7 2012: R+38.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 58.00%
• Current HPI: 420.9288
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+307.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $170,000 GAMLS
• 2021-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records
• 2004-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $76,800 Public Records
• 1998-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,700 Public Records
• 1996-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $905 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.