451 Fargo Ave

Buffalo, NY 14213

$399,900B+

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,279 sqft · Built 1920 · MultiFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,899/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,029
• Net cashflow: $1,521/mo
• Annual: $18,254/yr
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.30%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $111,972

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $507/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $400k implies a 1043% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,899/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.