451 Fargo Ave · Buffalo, NY 14213

$399,900

8 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,279 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1920 5,215 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $400k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Key facts

• Solid rental history
• Spacious units
• 5,215 sq ft lot

Tags

• STRONG MONTHLY CASH FLOW
• IMMEDIATE INCOME POTENTIAL
• SOLID RENTAL HISTORY
• SPACIOUS UNITS
• STRONG INCOME PRODUCTION
• DESIRABLE RENTAL CORRIDORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 4 total units in the building; 4 separate gas meters; 4 separate electric meters
• Financial info: Tenants pay all utilities; Operating expense details: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway/parking and garage access
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Multi-family property with 4 units; 3 stories
• Construction: Existing construction (see remarks for details)
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage; Lot dimensions approximately 35 x 149

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 separate units (multi-family building)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Varies by area/unit
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (one per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Hardwood and varied flooring throughout; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater; Each unit has separate gas and electric meters

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $507/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $388k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,899/mo this rent would consume 109% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $112k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($388k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $400k implies a 1043% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $387,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.30%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,276
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -0.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
574 West Ave	0.16mi	7/3.0 (-1)	3,360 (+2%)	11mo	$425,000	$126	74
761 Prospect Ave	0.09mi	8/3.0	3,476 (+6%)	16mo	$160,000	$46	72
845 Prospect Ave	0.13mi	7/3.0 (-1)	3,400 (+4%)	17mo	$285,000	$84	69
502 Fargo Ave	0.11mi	8/4.0	3,645 (+11%)	24mo	$163,000	$45	53
261 Breckenridge St	0.59mi	8/3.0	3,120 (-5%)	22mo	$160,000	$51	46
457 Plymouth Ave	0.14mi	9/4.0 (+1)	3,730 (+14%)	19mo	$210,000	$56	46
38 California St	0.38mi	8/3.0	2,844 (-13%)	22mo	$80,000	$28	42
446 Massachusetts Ave	0.59mi	7/3.0 (-1)	2,894 (-12%)	18mo	$350,000	$121	33
50 Arnold St	0.63mi	7/2.0 (-1)	2,905 (-11%)	15mo	$204,000	$70	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $234,694
• Equity at exit: $290,637

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $582,199
• Equity at exit: $564,776

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 20.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,029
• Net cashflow: $1,521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,973

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,748	-5% $1,634	+0% $1,521	+5% $1,408	+10% $1,295
Rent	-10% $1,134	-5% $1,328	+0% $1,521	+5% $1,715	+10% $1,908
Rate	-1.0pp $1,723	-0.5pp $1,623	base $1,521	+0.5pp $1,418	+1.0pp $1,312

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	3	—	$4,899
Total (3 units)			$4,899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $399,900 Active 962-char remark
16. 2014-12-30
    soldstatus $35,000
17. 2009-08-14
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,891 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,867/yr (+$239/mo · 280.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $58,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,703
• − Management: −$4,703
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $12,325
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,958
• After-tax cash flow: $15,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1328.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $399,900 WNYREIS
• 2014-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2009-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.