172 Sleepy Hollow Cir

Kerrville, TX 78028

$225,000D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $181/mo
• Annual: $2,168/yr
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Ingram ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #145 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.