172 Sleepy Hollow Cir · Kerrville, TX 78028

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 66 Days on market

Built 1985 0.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST UNDER ONE ACRE with 1456 sq. Feet + BONUS LIVING AREA! With a spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home. This large home offers expanded living with two living rooms, oversized bedrooms, and hard flooring throughout. With additional parking and a layout full of potential, this home is ready for your TLC and character-filled personal touches to truly make it your own.

Key facts

• 0.74 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Ingram ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #145 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,742 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-25,002
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-7,151
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $725/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,689

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
155 Nimitz Dr Kerrville, TX	1.0	2.0	1404	$2,000	$1.42	44d	1	0.78mi
335 Goat Creek Cut Off Rd Kerrville, TX	2.0	2.0	1340	$2,100	$1.57	44d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-04-03
    listed $225,000 Active 377-char remark

    Show marketing remark (377 chars)

    JUST UNDER ONE ACRE with 1456 sq. Feet + BONUS LIVING AREA! With a spacious 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home. This large home offers expanded living with two living rooms, oversized bedrooms, and hard flooring throughout. With additional parking and a layout full of potential, this home is ready for your TLC and character-filled personal touches to truly make it your own.

12. 2026-01-19
    price $225,000
13. 2017-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $725 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,392/yr (+$283/mo · 467.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,009
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$725
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,671
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$401
• After-tax cash flow: $2,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ingram ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824210
• Math proficiency: 58% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,533
• Composite: 44.29/100
• National rank: #2834
• State rank: #145 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kerr County · 41,206 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $225,000 KVMLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $225,000 KVMLS
• 2017-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $725 · -1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.