5230 Woodlawn Pl

Bellaire, TX 77401

$299,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,018 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,749/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$498
• HOA: −$150
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$577
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-535/yr
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-535/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $275k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $275k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#32 in TX, #1,639 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: cost of living F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pershing Middle (math 36% / reading 49%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 1,390 students, 60% FRL); Bellaire H S (math 45% / reading 62%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 3,170 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 71% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 31% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Houston ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($244k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.