3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,525 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 41 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,316/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$228
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$276
Net cashflow
$-79/mo
Annual
$-952/yr
Cap rate
5.73%
Cash-on-cash
-2.00%
DSCR
0.91
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-952/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (8.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (22.6% below list).
It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#234 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Dougherty County (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #163 of 174 in GA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Radium Springs Elementary School (math 12% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,041 of 1,228 statewide, top 87%, 423 students, 100% FRL); Radium Springs Middle School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #462 of 470 statewide, top 99%, 919 students, 100% FRL); Dougherty Comprehensive High School (math 2% / reading 5%, grade F, #413 of 424 statewide, top 99%, 1,204 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 79% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 128 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 45 units permitted in Dougherty County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dougherty County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $98k; list at $170k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2F4GRM9B5NFQJE
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29