1389 Old Kyle Rd

Jefferson, OH 44032

$184,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Pending · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-228/mo
• Annual: $-2,739/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $51,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (34.2% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $122k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Area Local (rural): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #382 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $185k implies a 516% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.