1389 Old Kyle Rd · Jefferson, OH 44032

$184,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2002 7.70 ac lot $127/sqft · 42% below area Est $318k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

Key facts

• Riding trails
• Open floor plan
• Updated main bedroom

Tags

• 7 ACRE LOT
• RIDING TRAILS
• POND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE KITCHEN
• UPDATED MAIN BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-228 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (34.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (34.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#506 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson Area Local (rural): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #382 of 656 in OH (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $185k implies a 516% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $121,749 (34.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,409
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: -41.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $86,130
• Equity at exit: $166,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $264,999
• Equity at exit: $359,220

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44032

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,217 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,720/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,506

Max offer price $144,584

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-124	-5% $-176	+0% $-228	+5% $-281	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-324	-5% $-276	+0% $-228	+5% $-180	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-135	-0.5pp $-181	base $-228	+0.5pp $-276	+1.0pp $-325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

3. 2026-04-20
   status Pending 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

4. 2026-04-13
   status Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

5. 2026-04-04
   historical Contingent 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

6. 2026-03-31
   price $184,900 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

7. 2026-03-20
   listed $189,900 Active 228-char remark

   Show marketing remark (228 chars)

   Large 7+ acre lot with riding trails and a pond. Open floor plan with large kitchen and panty. Updated main bedroom opens up to a large bathroom offering a stand-up shower and jetted garden tub. Everything you need on one floor.

8. 2010-11-10
   listed $55,550
9. 2010-08-17
   historical
10. 2010-07-06
    listed $69,900
11. 2010-06-30
    historical
12. 2009-12-28
    listed $74,900
13. 2002-02-22
    soldstatus $30,000
14. 2002-02-21
    soldstatus $30,000
15. 2001-07-17
    listed $30,000
16. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,720 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,302 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$582/yr (+$49/mo · 33.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$1,720
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$6,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,466
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Area Local
• NCES district ID: 3904587
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,966
• Composite: 46.13/100
• National rank: #2506
• State rank: #382 of 656 in OH

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #506
• US rank: #8526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ashtabula · 97,617 people
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 2,254
• Household income: $54,613
• Rent vs Own: 6.7% rent · 93.3% own

Population outlook (Ashtabula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 92,950 people
• By 2030: 89,146 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 80,715 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 72,270 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 55,780 · -40.0%
• By 2100: 40,928 · -56.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Romanian 2% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · German/W. Germanic 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Ashtabula

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.4% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.9pp toward R · 2008: 13.5pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+23.5 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.26%
• Current HPI: 322.5338
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+927.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-20 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — MLSNOW
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $184,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-20 Listed $189,900 MLSNOW
• 2010-11-10 Listed $55,550 MLSNOW
• 2010-08-17 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2010-07-06 Listed $69,900 MLSNOW
• 2010-06-30 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2009-12-28 Listed $74,900 MLSNOW
• 2002-02-22 Sold (MLS) $30,000 MLSNOW
• 2002-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-17 Listed $30,000 MLSNOW
• 1999-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,720 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.