31289 Pine Oak Rd

Menifee, CA 92596

$677,248D+

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,763 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,552
• Tax + insurance: −$1,129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $-888/mo
• Annual: $-10,659/yr
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $189,629

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $677k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-888 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (29.1% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $480k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southshore Elementary (874 students, 52% FRL); Bell Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,097 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Menifee Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.