31289 Pine Oak Rd · Menifee, CA 92596

$677,248

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,763 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $763k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

This stunning, two-story home showcases a welcoming front porch. Inside, discover an open floor plan with 9-ft. ceilings and durable luxury vinyl plank flooring at main living areas. The kitchen boasts an island, white thermofoil cabinets, quartz countertops, Whirlpool® stainless steel appliances and single-basin sink. Upstairs, a versatile loft awaits. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet, plush carpeting and connecting bath with cultured marble countertops, oval undermount sinks, a linen closet and walk-in shower. Additional highlights include a solar energy system (purchase or lease required), LED lighting, electric charging station pre-wiring, smart thermostat and al

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Quartz countertops
• Front porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ISLAND
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SINGLE-BASIN SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 31289 Pine Oak Rd, Winchester CA 92596; Listing modified May 23, 2026
• Financial info: List price $677,248

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,763

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Plan 2763 Modeled)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $677k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-888 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $549k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $480k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $480k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.6% in Menifee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#407 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southshore Elementary (874 students, 52% FRL); Bell Mountain Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 1,097 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Menifee Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 353 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $72k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $68k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$116k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $480,008 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.62%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $762,588
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31264 Pine Oak Rd	0.04mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,763 (0%)	1mo	$657,990	$238	92
31372 Pine Oak Rd	0.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,453 (-11%)	1mo	$677,095	$276	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $298,280
• Equity at exit: $610,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $897,829
• Equity at exit: $1,315,744

Cash invested: $189,629 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 353
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,552
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$847 /mo · $10,159/yr
• Insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,008
• Net cashflow: $-888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,924

Max offer price $548,717

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-420	-5% $-654	+0% $-888	+5% $-1,122	+10% $-1,356
Rent	-10% $-1,267	-5% $-1,078	+0% $-888	+5% $-699	+10% $-509
Rate	-1.0pp $-547	-0.5pp $-716	base $-888	+0.5pp $-1,064	+1.0pp $-1,242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $169,312
• Closing costs: $20,317
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32257 Jeter Ln Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2497	$4,200	$1.68	6d	1	0.99mi
30449 Pipkin Ct Menifee, CA	4.0	3.5	2653	$3,800	$1.43	14d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $677,248 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $677,248 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $677,248 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $677,248 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$37,936
• − Property taxes: −$10,159
• − Insurance: −$3,386
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,608
• − Management: −$4,608
• − Depreciation: −$19,702
• Taxable loss: −$22,798
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,472
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Menifee

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #407
• US rank: #13882

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 111,667
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B