3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,863 sqft ·
Built 1860
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 18 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,897/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$262
Tax + insurance
−$83
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$398
Net cashflow
$1,154/mo
Annual
$13,844/yr
Cap rate
34.04%
Cash-on-cash
99.09%
DSCR
5.41
1% rule
3.80%
Cash to close
$13,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#164 in NY, #2,566 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Lancaster Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #234 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 34.0% vs local median 2.9% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2FF5785KXWYX7P
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29