21 E Eastlake Dr

Shelton, WA 98584

$290,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$351
• HOA: −$27
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-299/mo
• Annual: $-3,589/yr
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (30.2% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pioneer School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #188 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.