21 E Eastlake Dr · Shelton, WA 98584

$290,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured · 13 Days on market

Built 2022 0.25 ac lot $194/sqft · 13% below area Est $333k · 13% under $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Timberlake! This 2022 manufactured home offers 1,493 square feet of living space with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms in a great split-bedroom floor plan. The open concept kitchen, dining, and living room are perfect for entertaining. The kitchen features ample storage, counter space, and all appliances stay. This home sits on a large corner lot with plenty of parking for your toys. Make this home yours and enjoy the community waterfront park this summer!

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large corner lot
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• COMMUNITY WATERFRONT PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,493; MLS square footage source: Public record; Style: Double wide manufactured (Manuf-Double Wide)
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: HOA fee $27 monthly (includes common area maintenance); Community features include boat launch, CCRs, and park; Association: Timberlake CC

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking listed
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Community water; Septic tank; Power by Mason PUD 3
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide) on land; One level; Main entry
• Construction: Built/effective year 2022; Cement plank and wood construction; Composition roof; Concrete ribbon foundation with tie downs
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Cement planked and wood exterior; Wood products finish; Corner lot; Paved access; Level to partially sloped topography; Community waterfront / private beach access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level); 2 bathtubs; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Electric fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Has heating: Forced air

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Pioneer School District (rural): math 37% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #188 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $202,486 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,850
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -12.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
80 E Carr Pl E	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-6%)	3mo	$336,000	$239	83
281 E McLane Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	1mo	$375,000	$234	75
300 E Skookum Dr NE	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	4mo	$295,000	$219	67
90 E Treewater Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-1%)	3mo	$370,000	$251	65
561 E Lakeshore Dr E	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	3mo	$324,950	$242	58
20 E Totten Pl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	3mo	$340,000	$262	56
241 E McLane Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (-14%)	6mo	$215,000	$167	55
401 E Annas Way	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	4mo	$339,900	$253	52
1291 E Lakeshore Dr W	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+6%)	6mo	$239,400	$151	52
160 E Elk Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	6mo	$325,000	$242	51
371 E Annas Way	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,620 (+8%)	4mo	$335,000	$207	48
140 E Elk Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	3mo	$329,900	$255	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-66,075
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,203
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$230 /mo · $2,761/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,403

Max offer price $237,168

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   listed $290,000 Active
2. 2023-08-02
   soldstatus $350,000 Closed
3. 2023-05-31
   status Pending
4. 2023-05-26
   price $334,700
5. 2023-05-19
   price $336,200
6. 2023-05-10
   price $335,000
7. 2023-03-17
   price $338,000
8. 2023-02-10
   listed $348,000 Active
9. 2021-07-06
   soldstatus $50,000 Closed
10. 2021-07-06
    soldstatus $50,000
11. 2021-06-04
    status Pending
12. 2021-05-28
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,761 · $230/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,842 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: +$81/yr (+$7/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$2,761
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$8,805
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pioneer School District
• NCES district ID: 5306750
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $51,151
• Composite: 40.15/100
• National rank: #7840
• State rank: #188 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+427.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Listed $290,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-02 Sold (MLS) $350,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $334,700 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-19 Price Changed $336,200 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-10 Price Changed $335,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-17 Price Changed $338,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-10 Listed $348,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-06 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-04 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-28 Listed $55,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+100.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,761 · +24.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.