9830 Caneyville Rd

Caneyville, KY 42261

$99,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $345/mo
• Annual: $4,144/yr
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Butler County (rural): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 165 in KY (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Butler Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 396 students, 54% FRL); Butler County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 633 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.