9830 Caneyville Rd · Caneyville, KY 42261

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1960 6.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 6.72+/- acres new heat & air. Has carport, storage building, storm shelter, replacement windows & creek.

Key facts

• Running stream
• 6.72 acres
• Central heat and air

Tags

• 6.72 ACRES
• RUNNING STREAM
• LARGE PASTURE
• UNCOVERED FRONT PORCH
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• GAS WALL UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $345 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.1% in Caneyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#182 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Butler County (rural): math 18% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 165 in KY (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Butler Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 396 students, 54% FRL); Butler County High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #179 of 254 statewide, top 78%, 633 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Butler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.95%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $73,167
• Equity at exit: $86,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.12×
• Total profit: $197,423
• Equity at exit: $183,149

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42261

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $381/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $750

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   status Active
3. 2026-03-31
   price $99,000
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-28
   price $89,000
6. 2026-02-17
   listed $100,000 Active
7. 2019-08-15
   soldstatus $90,000 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 6.72+/- acres new heat & air. Has carport, storage building, storm shelter, replacement windows & creek.

8. 2019-08-15
   soldstatus $90,000

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 6.72+/- acres new heat & air. Has carport, storage building, storm shelter, replacement windows & creek.

9. 2019-06-03
   listed $94,500 150-char remark

   Show marketing remark (150 chars)

   3 bedroom, 1 bath home sitting on 6.72+/- acres new heat & air. Has carport, storage building, storm shelter, replacement windows & creek.

10. 2008-04-18
    soldstatus $49,600
11. 2004-03-26
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $381 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 123.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$381
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,660
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$638
• After-tax cash flow: $3,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Butler County
• NCES district ID: 2100810
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $35,849
• Composite: 20.65/100
• National rank: #8541
• State rank: #147 of 165 in KY

Livability — Caneyville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #9075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,302
• Population (ZIP): 9,725

Population outlook (Butler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,118 people
• By 2030: 13,111 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 13,003 · -0.9%
• By 2050: 12,979 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 13,826 · +5.4%
• By 2100: 15,986 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Polish 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Butler

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.2% · R 82.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.3pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+62.4 2012: R+47.9 2008: R+40.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.60%
• Current HPI: 272.49
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+330.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $99,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $89,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Listed $100,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-08-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-15 Sold (MLS) $90,000 RASKMLS
• 2019-06-03 Listed $94,500 RASKMLS
• 2008-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $49,600 Public Records
• 2004-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $381 · -52.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.