5851 Alberene Rd

Esmont, VA 22937

$160,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $437/mo
• Annual: $5,240/yr
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Red Hill Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 201 students, 68% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $160k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.