5851 Alberene Rd · Esmont, VA 22937

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1974 2.00 ac lot Est $285k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

INVESTORS! Looking for a home in Albemarle that needs some love? Look no further! This 3 bedroom 1 bath is a common build for the area, easy to find comparable sales, and is situated on a whopping 2 acres. This home has plenty of potential from the most seasoned investors to folks new to the renovation world. Reach out to take your private tour today! Sold as-is.

Key facts

• 2 acres
• Plenty of potential
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• PLENTY OF POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water (private); Septic tank; Cable available; Other utilities available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; One level
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation; Built area approximately 960 (public records)
• Exterior features: Approximately 2 acres

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the downstairs level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Red Hill Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 201 students, 68% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $160k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3590 Green Creek Rd	0.27mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$250,000	$260	84
3666 Green Creek Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	960 (0%)	12mo	$284,900	$297	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $38,618
• Equity at exit: $62,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $109,488
• Equity at exit: $90,520

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22937

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,670/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $437

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,323

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 365-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,670 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,504
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,670
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,800
• − Management: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $2,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $4,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Esmont

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #21526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,556

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Current HPI: 170.0385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+107.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $160,000 HRAR
• 2006-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $96,500 Public Records
• 2002-06-04 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2001-12-04 Listed $77,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,670 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.