1129 Lincoln Blvd

Santa Monica, CA 90403

$3,700,000D

12 bd · 10.4 ba · 7,377 sqft · Built 1956 · MultiFamily · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,253/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$19,403
• Tax + insurance: −$2,493
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,303
• Net cashflow: $-1,947/mo
• Annual: $-23,360/yr
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.25%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $1,036,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $3.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-23k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-487/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.36M (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.53M (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($3.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.53M (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($26k loan paydown + $-4k appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#178 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Santa Monica-Malibu Unified (urban): math 61% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #123 of 1,400 in CA (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 93 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$248k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 1.2% in Santa Monica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $25,253/mo this rent would consume 249% of the median local household income ($122k/yr) (locally 2265% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?