612 Finlee Way

Tioga, TX 76271

$349,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,467 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,567/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$29
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-81/mo
• Annual: $-968/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-968/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.