612 Finlee Way · Tioga, TX 76271

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,467 sqft · Land · 106 Days on market

Built 2025 0.26 ac lot $239/sqft · at area comps Est $365k · at est. $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this stunning Craftsman-style residence in the desirable Gables at Tioga community, conveniently located near Tioga ISD’s highly rated elementary and intermediate schools. This beautifully designed one-story home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere from the moment you step inside. High-end finishes shine throughout, including wood-look luxury vinyl flooring, custom cabinetry, and elegant tile and countertops. The well-appointed kitchen is a dream for any home chef, offering stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, and a spacious center island perfect for gathering. Situated on a landscaped lot with grass and a sprinkler system, the home also features a covered back patio—ideal for relaxing evenings outdoors. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a thoughtfully built Red Gable Home that blends modern farmhouse charm with energy-efficient living.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Open floor plan
• High-end finishes

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN STYLE RESIDENCE
• GABLES AT TIOGA COMMUNITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• HIGH-END FINISHES
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-81 ($-968/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $336k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tioga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tioga ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #226 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,652 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $364,908
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -4.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.47% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $127,063
• Equity at exit: $253,289

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $372,143
• Equity at exit: $491,266

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76271

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,182/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,669

Max offer price $335,651

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $18	+0% $-81	+5% $-180	+10% $-279
Rent	-10% $-283	-5% $-182	+0% $-81	+5% $21	+10% $122
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $8	base $-81	+0.5pp $-171	+1.0pp $-264

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
618 Kyle Dr Tioga, TX	4.0	2.0	1741	$2,700	$1.55	45d	1	0.05mi
402 E Hinton St Tioga, TX	2.0	2.0	992	$1,385	$1.40	22d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 976-char remark

   Show marketing remark (976 chars)

   Welcome home to this stunning Craftsman-style residence in the desirable Gables at Tioga community, conveniently located near Tioga ISD’s highly rated elementary and intermediate schools. This beautifully designed one-story home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere from the moment you step inside. High-end finishes shine throughout, including wood-look luxury vinyl flooring, custom cabinetry, and elegant tile and countertops. The well-appointed kitchen is a dream for any home chef, offering stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, and a spacious center island perfect for gathering. Situated on a landscaped lot with grass and a sprinkler system, the home also features a covered back patio—ideal for relaxing evenings outdoors. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a thoughtfully built Red Gable Home that blends modern farmhouse charm with energy-efficient living.

2. 2026-01-22
   listed $349,900 Active 976-char remark

   Show marketing remark (976 chars)

   Welcome home to this stunning Craftsman-style residence in the desirable Gables at Tioga community, conveniently located near Tioga ISD’s highly rated elementary and intermediate schools. This beautifully designed one-story home features an open floor plan with 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere from the moment you step inside. High-end finishes shine throughout, including wood-look luxury vinyl flooring, custom cabinetry, and elegant tile and countertops. The well-appointed kitchen is a dream for any home chef, offering stainless steel appliances, a gas cooktop, and a spacious center island perfect for gathering. Situated on a landscaped lot with grass and a sprinkler system, the home also features a covered back patio—ideal for relaxing evenings outdoors. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a thoughtfully built Red Gable Home that blends modern farmhouse charm with energy-efficient living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,182 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,403 · $534/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,221/yr (+$435/mo · 441.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,182
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,464
• − Management: −$2,464
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$7,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842870
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,096
• Composite: 40.38/100
• National rank: #3735
• State rank: #226 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #656
• US rank: #12339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, TX
• City population: 1,864
• Population (ZIP): 1,864

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.47%
• Current HPI: 297.1567
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $349,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,182 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.