134 Sable Dr

Carlisle, PA 17013

$234,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,629 sqft · Built 2007 · Townhouse · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,986/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-144/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-144/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.5% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• South Middleton SD (town): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Rice El Sch (432 students, 38% FRL); Yellow Breeches Ms (math 27% / reading 59%, grade D-, #214 of 512 statewide, top 42%, 474 students, 31% FRL); Boiling Springs Hs (math 72% / reading 72%, grade B+, #39 of 437 statewide, top 9%, 777 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 10113% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $192k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.