134 Sable Dr · Carlisle, PA 17013

$234,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,629 sqft · Townhouse public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2007 3,049 sqft lot Est $248k · 5% under $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 134 Sable Drive, located in the desirable Sable Chase community in Carlisle. This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a functional layout, comfortable living spaces, and a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes. Step inside to a welcoming entry that opens to a spacious foyer and highlights the home’s open feel. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space and durable Corian countertops, making it both practical and inviting. Natural light fills the living and dining areas, creating a bright and comfortable space that leads out to the rear patio, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite features a private full

Key facts

• $40 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $40 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage with inside access (1 garage space); Asphalt driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding with stone accents; Shingle roof; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; 2+ access exits

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas oven/range; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heat; Hot water heat; Natural gas heating fuel; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan; Ceiling fans; Country-style kitchen; Master bathroom; Pantry; Upgraded countertops; Walk-in closet(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-144/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $233k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#297 in PA, #2,632 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• South Middleton SD (town): math 45% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #106 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: W.G. Rice El Sch (432 students, 38% FRL); Yellow Breeches Ms (math 27% / reading 59%, grade D-, #214 of 512 statewide, top 42%, 474 students, 31% FRL); Boiling Springs Hs (math 72% / reading 72%, grade B+, #39 of 437 statewide, top 9%, 777 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask is 10113% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $192k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,559 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,608
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Sable Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,629 (0%)	1mo	$223,000	$137	99
315 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	8mo	$316,725	$200	86
319 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	8mo	$307,000	$194	85
317 Pelham Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	9mo	$240,000	$152	85
313 Pelham Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-3%)	13mo	$329,700	$208	80
202 Sable Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,629 (0%)	23mo	$240,200	$147	78
116 Sable Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,570 (-4%)	18mo	$231,000	$147	74
310 Fairview St	0.68mi	3/1.5	1,608 (-1%)	0mo	$140,000	$87	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,742
• Equity at exit: $35,024

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-39,298
• Equity at exit: $20,310

Cash invested: $65,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,531/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $232,774

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $54	+0% $-12	+5% $-79	+10% $-145
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-90	+0% $-12	+5% $66	+10% $145
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $48	base $-12	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-135

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,725
• Closing costs: $7,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
134 Sable Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1629	$2,100	$1.29	16d	1	0.04mi
206 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	25d	1	0.41mi
308 Alfalfa Dr CARLISLE BRKS, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	25d	1	0.41mi
315 York Rd Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,100	$1.31	16d	1	0.50mi
79 Dawn Ridge Loop Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1179	$1,474	$1.25	16d	4	0.51mi
495 S Spring Garden St #308 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,835	$1.13	45d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St #202 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,050	$1.26	25d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St #109 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,150	$1.32	25d	1	0.64mi
495 S Spring Garden St Unit 302 Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$1,735	$1.07	45d	1	0.64mi
1 Rush Dr Carlisle, PA	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,650	$1.60	16d	3	0.68mi
16 Brook Side Dr Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1632	$1,975	$1.21	16d	1	1.08mi
26 Spring View St Carlisle, PA	2.0	2.5	1281	$1,700	$1.33	16d	1	1.13mi
34 S Hanover St Apt 3, Carlisle, PA 17013 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	1.16mi
156 E Penn St Carlisle, PA	3.0	3.0	1808	$1,850	$1.02	25d	1	1.19mi
131 Nava CT Carlisle, PA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1345	$1,650	$1.23	16d	1	1.24mi
50 W High St Unit 203 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.29mi
54 W High St Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,180	$1.98	25d	1	1.29mi
219 N Hanover St Unit 3 Carlisle, PA	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	25d	1	1.33mi
7 Kerrs Ave Carlisle, PA	4.0	1.5	1652	$1,750	$1.06	45d	1	1.35mi
15 Parker Spring Ave Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	16d	1	1.38mi
230 N Pitt St Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-21
   listed $2,300
2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-13
   listed $234,900 Active
4. 2026-04-09
   historical $234,900
5. 2021-10-04
   soldstatus $192,500
6. 2020-05-12
   historical
7. 2019-08-31
   historical
8. 2019-04-01
   listed $168,900 Active
9. 2015-09-30
   historical
10. 2014-05-02
    listed $154,900
11. 2013-11-30
    historical
12. 2013-09-05
    listed $154,900
13. 2013-08-12
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,121 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: +$590/yr (+$49/mo · 23.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,158
• − Property taxes: −$2,531
• − Insurance: −$1,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,833
• Taxable loss: −$4,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$999
• After-tax cash flow: $855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Middleton SD
• NCES district ID: 4222050
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,822
• Composite: 47.74/100
• National rank: #2236
• State rank: #106 of 539 in PA

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #2632

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• City population: 62,898
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-98.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed for Rent $2,300 Avail
• 2026-04-24 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $234,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $192,500 Public Records
• 2020-05-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-08-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-04-01 Listed $168,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-09-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-02 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-09-05 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-08-12 Listed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,531 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.