38 Matchlock Dr

O'Fallon, MO 63376

$249,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,143/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$280
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $103/mo
• Annual: $1,233/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.2% below list).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ft. Zumwalt R-II (suburban): math 54% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #14 of 324 in MO (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Progress South Elem. (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #180 of 1,115 statewide, top 16%, 678 students, 19% FRL); Ft. Zumwalt South High (math 57% / reading 70%, grade B-, #24 of 521 statewide, top 4%, 1,334 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 17% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $250k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.