305 Gills Branch Rd

Monterey, KY 40359

$112,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Built 2007 · Other · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax + insurance: −$268
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,229/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $31,360

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $112k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (14.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $94k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($774 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#532 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.