305 Gills Branch Rd · Monterey, KY 40359

$112,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,518 sqft · Other · 5 Days on market

Built 2007 1.19 ac lot ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

For comp purposes only

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Convenient access
• Spacious lot

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• SPACIOUS LOT
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family manufactured home (double wide); One level; Built in 2007
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation and mobile home base
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Cleared, level lot; County road frontage; Paved road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Bedroom 2
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room with washer hookup and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (16.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $94k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#532 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Owen County (rural): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #120 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Owen County Elementary/Primary School (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #378 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 690 students, 62% FRL); Maurice Bowling Middle School (math 22% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 484 students, 62% FRL); Owen County High School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 558 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 103 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Owen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($774 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Owen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,907 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.38%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $54,539
• Equity at exit: $100,898

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $165,868
• Equity at exit: $217,591

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40359

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,863/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $93,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-39	-5% $-71	+0% $-102	+5% $-134	+10% $-166
Rent	-10% $-178	-5% $-140	+0% $-102	+5% $-65	+10% $-27
Rate	-1.0pp $-46	-0.5pp $-74	base $-102	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $112,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 626-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   listed $112,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,863 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,863 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$1,863
• − Insurance: −$1,358
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$915
• − Management: −$915
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable loss: −$3,141
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$754
• After-tax cash flow: $-475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Owen County
• NCES district ID: 2104560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,943
• Composite: 23.84/100
• National rank: #7804
• State rank: #120 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monterey

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #27187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,222

Population outlook (Owen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,496 people
• By 2030: 10,251 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 9,650 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 8,984 · -14.4%
• By 2075: 7,589 · -27.7%
• By 2100: 6,380 · -39.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Owen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.0% · R 80.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.8pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+58.5 2016: R+53.7 2012: R+32.3 2008: R+26.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.56%
• Current HPI: 215.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-30.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $112,000 NKMLS
• 2024-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $154,500 Public Records
• 2024-01-12 Sold (MLS) $154,500 NKMLS
• 2024-01-12 Sold (MLS) $154,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-12-15 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2023-12-07 Pending — NKMLS
• 2023-12-01 Listed $154,500 ImagineMLS
• 2023-11-13 Listed $159,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,863 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.