The Elliot Plan

Rogers, MN 55374

$350,990F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,548
• Tax + insurance: −$810
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-1,210/mo
• Annual: $-14,517/yr
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.67%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $136,057

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $351k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (22.5% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#326 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rogers Elementary (math 69% / reading 70%, grade A-, #74 of 857 statewide, top 10%, 627 students, 12% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.