The Elliot Plan · Rogers, MN 55374

$350,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meet the Elliot, a new two-level townhome floor plan available at Big Woods in Rogers, Minnesota. The open-concept main level combines the family room and kitchen, allowing homeowners to easily transition from one space to the other. The kitchen's highlights include stainless steel appliances and quartz countertops. In the living room there is hard flooring throughout. Homeowners can easily enjoy the outdoors on a concrete patio adjacent to the kitchen. Upstairs, you'll find four spacious bedrooms, as well as an upper-level loft providing added living space. The roomy bedroom suite connects to a private bathroom with a quartz double vanity, as well as a large walk-in closet. Laundry is also located centrally by all four bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Photos are representational only. Options and colors vary.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 81 days

🏗️ New construction. The $350,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $485,919.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $351k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (11.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#326 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Rogers Elementary (math 69% / reading 70%, grade A-, #74 of 857 statewide, top 10%, 627 students, 12% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 396 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $271,939 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.67%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $485,919
• List price: $350,990
• Delta: -27.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-155,749
• Equity at exit: $72,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -48.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.72×
• Total profit: $-234,671
• Equity at exit: $42,013

Cash invested: $136,057 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55374

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,548
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$607 /mo · $7,289/yr
• Insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-1,210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,251

Max offer price $310,865

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-874	-5% $-1,042	+0% $-1,210	+5% $-1,378	+10% $-1,546
Rent	-10% $-1,425	-5% $-1,317	+0% $-1,210	+5% $-1,102	+10% $-995
Rate	-1.0pp $-965	-0.5pp $-1,086	base $-1,210	+0.5pp $-1,336	+1.0pp $-1,464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $121,480
• Closing costs: $14,578
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13625 Busch Ln Unit 1 Rogers, MN	3.0	3.0	1667	$2,640	$1.58	45d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $350,990 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $350,990 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $350,990 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $350,990 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $350,990 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $350,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $350,990 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $350,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $350,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $350,990 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $350,990 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $350,990 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $347,990 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,990 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-05-02
    price $347,990 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Meet the Elliot, a new two-level townhome floor plan available at Big Woods in Rogers, Minnesota. The open-concept main level combines the family room and kitchen, allowing homeowners to easily transition from one space to the other. The kitchen's highlights include stainless steel appliances and quartz countertops. In the living room there is hard flooring throughout. Homeowners can easily enjoy the outdoors on a concrete patio adjacent to the kitchen. Upstairs, you'll find four spacious bedrooms, as well as an upper-level loft providing added living space. The roomy bedroom suite connects to a private bathroom with a quartz double vanity, as well as a large walk-in closet. Laundry is also located centrally by all four bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Photos are representational only. Options and colors vary.

17. 2026-04-01
    listed $345,990 Active 1043-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1043 chars)

    Meet the Elliot, a new two-level townhome floor plan available at Big Woods in Rogers, Minnesota. The open-concept main level combines the family room and kitchen, allowing homeowners to easily transition from one space to the other. The kitchen's highlights include stainless steel appliances and quartz countertops. In the living room there is hard flooring throughout. Homeowners can easily enjoy the outdoors on a concrete patio adjacent to the kitchen. Upstairs, you'll find four spacious bedrooms, as well as an upper-level loft providing added living space. The roomy bedroom suite connects to a private bathroom with a quartz double vanity, as well as a large walk-in closet. Laundry is also located centrally by all four bedrooms. All D. R. Horton homes include designer inspired interior packages and come with the America's Smart Home industry-leading suite of smart home products such as a Qolsys IQ Panel, Kwikset smart locks, smart switches, video doorbell and more! * Photos are representational only. Options and colors vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,633
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,219
• − Property taxes: −$7,289
• − Insurance: −$2,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − Depreciation: −$14,136
• Taxable loss: −$23,662
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,679
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rogers

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #7371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rogers, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 16,661
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 16,661
• Household income: $144,714
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 32.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.53%
• Current HPI: 230.7463
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+0.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-01 Listed $345,990 Zillow