3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1919
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 19 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,307/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$524
Tax + insurance
−$356
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$274
Net cashflow
$152/mo
Annual
$1,830/yr
Cap rate
8.12%
Cash-on-cash
6.54%
DSCR
1.29
1% rule
1.31%
Cash to close
$27,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1919 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $47k; list at $100k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
At $1,307/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1919 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-2JCXF7FFAWG94Q
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29