1308 Vinewood Dr

Mansfield, TX 76063

$189,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $490/mo
• Annual: $5,879/yr
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.11%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $189k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mansfield ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #125 of 826 in TX (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annette Perry El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 522 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 715 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.8% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.