180 Poso St

Shafter, CA 93263

$280,000D+

3 bd · None ba · 956 sqft · Built 1937 · MultiFamily · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,664/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $337/mo
• Annual: $4,049/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $337 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $169/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (4.9% below list).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $266k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#185 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, cost of living D+.
• Richland Union Elementary (town): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #480 of 517 in CA (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Golden Oak Elementary (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,313 of 1,571 statewide, top 84%, 729 students, 91% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1937 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 176 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $127k; list at $280k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.7% in Shafter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1937 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.