2281 Fork Creek Rd

Bowman, GA 30624

$125,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · Built 1966 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $154/mo
• Annual: $1,849/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.4% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $124k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#502 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elbert County (rural): math 26% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #124 of 174 in GA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elbert County Primary School (461 students, 85% FRL); Elbert County Middle School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 929 students, 85% FRL); Elbert County High School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #315 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 875 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 61% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Elbert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Elbert County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $125k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.