2281 Fork Creek Rd · Bowman, GA 30624

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,415 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1966 1.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor or handy homeowner special! This 3-bedroom home (with potential for a 4th space) offers a full basement and ample space to transform. Priced at $125,000, it needs some TLC-cleaning, fresh paint, and updated light fixtures. The roof isn't leaking currently but will likely need replacing in future. The bones are solid, the HVAC works, and it's a great sweat equity opportunity with ARV in the $190k-$250k range. Cash or conventional only-no FHA. Perfect for those ready to make it shine!

Key facts

• 1.43 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road frontage on a county road (asphalt); Directions: use GPS; property sits right off county road
• Financial info: Single-unit property

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 4 parking spaces; Carport (1 space); Covered parking; Driveway parking; Level driveway; Open parking available
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity available (220 volts)
• Home design: One-and-one-half level home; Accessible approach with ramp; Fee simple ownership; Fixer condition
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Asbestos shingle roof; Brick/mortar foundation; Other structure: shed(s)
• Exterior features: Private entrance; Private yard; Rear stairs; Front porch; Rear porch; Covered patio/deck; Patio; Deck; Rain gutters; Storage; Back yard fence; Shed(s); Creek on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Cabinets; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Master on main
• Flooring: Hardwood; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Attic fan; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Bookcases; Double-pane windows; No common walls
• Laundry & utility: Basement with boat door access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (0.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#502 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Elbert County (rural): math 26% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #124 of 174 in GA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elbert County Primary School (461 students, 85% FRL); Elbert County Middle School (math 23% / reading 27%, grade F, #291 of 470 statewide, top 64%, 929 students, 85% FRL); Elbert County High School (math 17% / reading 12%, grade F, #315 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 875 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 61% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Elbert County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Elbert County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $71k; list at $125k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,488 (0.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $72,768
• Equity at exit: $107,159

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $205,375
• Equity at exit: $225,529

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30624

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $189	+0% $154	+5% $119	+10% $83
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $105	+0% $154	+5% $203	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $186	base $154	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $89

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $125,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   remarks 496-char remark
6. 2026-06-14
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,939
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,195
• − Management: −$1,195
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$42
• After-tax cash flow: $1,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elbert County
• NCES district ID: 1302010
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $34,498
• Composite: 21.0/100
• National rank: #8458
• State rank: #124 of 174 in GA

Livability — Bowman

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #22923

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,039

Population outlook (Elbert County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,648 people
• By 2030: 16,675 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 14,631 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 12,632 · -28.4%
• By 2075: 8,704 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 5,958 · -66.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 6% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Elbert

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.4) · D 28.2% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.1pp · 2024: -43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.4 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+18.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.40%
• Current HPI: 320.6205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+809.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $125,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-13 Coming Soon $125,000 FMLS
• 2026-06-13 Listed $125,000 GAMLS
• 2016-08-10 Sold (MLS) $71,000 GAMLS
• 2016-03-02 Listed $75,000 GAMLS
• 1967-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.