2020 W Orangewood Ave

Phoenix, AZ 85021

$3,895,000D+

81 bd · 81.0 ba · 12,935 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $40,090/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,426
• Tax + insurance: −$6,492
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,419
• Net cashflow: $4,754/mo
• Annual: $57,044/yr
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $1,090,600

Investor read

• This is a 27 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.90M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive. Per door: $176/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($40k rent vs $3.90M).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.66M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $117k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Orangewood School (math 12% / reading 20%, grade F, #854 of 1,109 statewide, top 78%, 850 students, 82% FRL); Washington High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #206 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,756 students, 60% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $40,090/mo this rent would consume 805% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 2553% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.