2020 W Orangewood Ave · Phoenix, AZ 85021

$3,895,000

81 bd · 81.0 ba · 12,935 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 27 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

The Mojave is a 27-unit, garden-style multifamily community located in Phoenix, AZ. Originally constructed in 1986 and extensively renovated in 2022, current and previous ownership has invested over $680,000 in capex into the property including a full interior renovation package on all 27 units (all with washer/dryer), new roof, asphalt replacement, upgraded landscaping, exterior painting and fencing, more. Even with significant capital improvements made over the past 5 years, new ownership can capture immediate upside by replacing the grass area with artificial turf, which will generate an estimated $5,000 to $10,000 in annual expense savings. This is a compelling opportunity for investors

Key facts

• 27 parking spots
• Pool
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: 27 total parking spaces; Paved parking; Approximately 1 space per unit
• Utilities: Electric service: SRP; Public sewer; Water via master meter (city franchise)
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Stucco finish; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Private pool; Asphalt road access; One building on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Disposal; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Unit(s) include rentable units (example unit rent shown)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Unit bathrooms included (per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Individual heating (electric); Individual cooling
• Interior features: Built-in range; Disposal; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included in unit(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 27 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.90M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($57k/yr) — positive. Per door: $176/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($40k rent vs $3.90M).
• Recommended offer: $3.66M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Glendale Union High School District (4285) (urban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #130 of 249 in AZ (top 52%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $40,090/mo this rent would consume 805% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 2553% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $117k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($3.66M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,661,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-445,279
• Equity at exit: $580,757

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-449,476
• Equity at exit: $336,768

Cash invested: $1,090,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85021

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 218.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $40,090 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,426
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$4,869 /mo · $58,425/yr
• Insurance: −$1,623
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,419
• Net cashflow: $4,754

Break-even live

Break-even rent $34,073

Max offer price $3,895,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $7,445	-5% $6,100	+0% $4,754	+5% $3,408	+10% $2,062
Rent	-10% $1,587	-5% $3,170	+0% $4,754	+5% $6,337	+10% $7,921
Rate	-1.0pp $6,715	-0.5pp $5,744	base $4,754	+0.5pp $3,744	+1.0pp $2,718

27-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 27× units	3	3	$40,095
Total (27 units)			$40,090

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $973,750
• Closing costs: $116,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $3,895,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,895,000 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $3,895,000 Active
16. 2024-10-10
    historical $945
17. 2024-07-30
    listed $945
18. 2024-06-12
    historical $945
19. 2024-06-01
    listed $945
20. 2024-05-31
    historical $945
21. 2024-05-30
    listed $945
22. 2024-05-30
    historical $945
23. 2024-05-11
    price $945
24. 2024-05-03
    listed $995
25. 2024-05-03
    historical $895
26. 2024-04-11
    listed $895
27. 2024-04-10
    historical $895
28. 2024-04-08
    listed $895
29. 2024-04-08
    historical $895
30. 2024-04-04
    listed $895
31. 2024-04-04
    historical $895
32. 2024-04-02
    listed $895
33. 2023-08-10
    historical $995
34. 2023-08-07
    listed $995
35. 2023-05-10
    historical
36. 2023-03-20
    listed $5,250,000 Active
37. 2022-05-21
    price $995
38. 2021-10-14
    soldstatus $3,635,000
39. 2020-08-21
    soldstatus $2,150,000
40. 2006-05-30
    historical
41. 2006-03-19
    listed $1,344,000
42. 1998-02-04
    soldstatus $638,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $481,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$218,181
• − Property taxes: −$58,425
• − Insurance: −$19,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$38,486
• − Management: −$38,486
• − Depreciation: −$113,309
• Taxable loss: −$5,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $58,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Glendale Union High School District (4285)
• NCES district ID: 0403450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $40,846
• Composite: 22.81/100
• National rank: #8020
• State rank: #130 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $59,768
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2553.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Native American 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -450.91%
• Current HPI: 328.1754
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+510.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $3,895,000 ARMLS
• 2024-10-10 Rental Removed $945 RENT.
• 2024-07-30 Listed for Rent $945 RENT.
• 2024-06-12 Rental Removed $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-01 Listed for Rent $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-31 Rental Removed $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-30 Listed for Rent $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-30 Rental Removed $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $945 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-03 Listed for Rent $995 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-03 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-11 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-08 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-08 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-04 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-04 Rental Removed $895 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-02 Listed for Rent $895 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-10 Rental Removed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2023-08-07 Listed for Rent $995 APPFOLIO
• 2023-05-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-03-20 Listed $5,250,000 ARMLS
• 2022-05-21 Price Changed $995 APPFOLIO
• 2021-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $3,635,000 Public Records
• 2020-08-21 Sold (Public Records) $2,150,000 Public Records
• 2006-05-30 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-03-19 Listed $1,344,000 ARMLS
• 1998-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $638,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,371 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.