5455 Ellaville Road Rd

Campbellton, FL 32426

$104,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 242 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax + insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $230/mo
• Annual: $2,763/yr
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.07%
• Cash to close: $29,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#858 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $104k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.