5455 Ellaville Road Rd · Campbellton, FL 32426

$104,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 242 Days on market

Built 1960 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this quaint cottage style home that sits on . 70 acres. This home Is ideal for some peaceful country living and would be a great starter home. This 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home has a small, yet cozy functional kitchen, and throughout the house you find spacious inviting rooms that have new vinyl-plank flooring, and new carpeting in the bedrooms. The atmosphere is pleasant with a very large fiving room and a very large bonus room, which both are warm and inviting for just relaxing or entertaining guests. The spacious yard has plenty of room to enjoy outdoor activities, and if having a back-yard chicken coop, a beehive or two, is your desire, then it would be deal for the small farm

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Large bonus room
• New carpeting

Tags

• COTTAGE STYLE HOME
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• NEW VINYL-PLANK FLOORING
• NEW CARPETING
• LARGE FAMILY LIVING ROOM
• LARGE BONUS ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Has cooling; Has heating
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor (10 x 10); Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (12 x 10; 12 x 8; 14 x 14)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Total of 6 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $230 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#858 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Jackson (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #39 of 73 in FL (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $719 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $104k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.49%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.72% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $8,137
• Equity at exit: $26,518

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $35,727
• Equity at exit: $29,068

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32426

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $751/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $824

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $289	-5% $260	+0% $230	+5% $201	+10% $171
Rent	-10% $142	-5% $186	+0% $230	+5% $274	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $283	-0.5pp $257	base $230	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,000 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 240 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 239 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 238 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 237 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,000 Active 234 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,000 Active 229 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,000 Active 225 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,000 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,000 Active 221 DOM
16. 2026-04-28
    status Active
17. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
18. 2026-03-29
    price $104,000
19. 2025-12-03
    price $124,000
20. 2025-11-16
    price $134,000
21. 2025-10-15
    listed $149,500 Active
22. 2024-11-07
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$112/yr (+$9/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,390
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$751
• − Insurance: −$520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable income: $1,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$270
• After-tax cash flow: $2,493/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson
• NCES district ID: 1200960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,824
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3358
• State rank: #39 of 73 in FL

Livability — Campbellton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #858
• US rank: #22104

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 710

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,095 people
• By 2030: 44,432 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 41,077 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 37,587 · -18.5%
• By 2075: 28,921 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 19,332 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 25% Two or more races 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.7% · R 72.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -28.0pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+28.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.72%
• Current HPI: 136.2437
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+131.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Price Changed $104,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $124,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $134,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $149,500 CPARMLS
• 2024-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $751 · +2332.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.