233 Willow Dr

Cape Colony, NC 27932

$80,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,071/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$2
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $370/mo
• Annual: $4,438/yr
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.81%
• DSCR: 1.88
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edenton-Chowan Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #118 of 178 in NC (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (509 students, 66% FRL); Chowan Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #279 of 475 statewide, top 60%, 428 students, 68% FRL); John A Holmes High (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 592 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Chowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chowan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $80k implies a 540% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.