233 Willow Dr · Cape Colony, NC 27932

$80,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1973 0.45 ac lot Est $67k · 19% over $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home offers deeded water access to the Albemarle Sound w a sandy beach & boat ramp. The home has a comfortable sized living room, kitchen, dining room, three bedrooms, one bath. And is situated on a double lot. Motivated seller invites you to make offers.

Key facts

• Sandy beach
• Deeded water access
• Double lot

Tags

• DEEDED WATER ACCESS
• SANDY BEACH
• BOAT RAMP
• DOUBLE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R15
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $20; Association offers beach access

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One story; Entry level on main floor; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Aluminum siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Patio or porch (other); Beach access and waterfront access; Has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Edenton-Chowan Schools (rural): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #118 of 178 in NC (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: White Oak Elementary (509 students, 66% FRL); Chowan Middle (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #279 of 475 statewide, top 60%, 428 students, 68% FRL); John A Holmes High (math 57% / reading 47%, grade D+, #292 of 535 statewide, top 56%, 592 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 241 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Chowan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chowan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $80k implies a 540% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.81%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $67,200
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Holly Dr	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	924 (-4%)	19mo	$65,000	$70	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $10,561
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $39,402
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27932

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $253/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $415	-5% $392	+0% $370	+5% $347	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $285	-5% $328	+0% $370	+5% $412	+10% $454
Rate	-1.0pp $410	-0.5pp $390	base $370	+0.5pp $349	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    listed $80,000 Active
18. 2016-06-07
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $253 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $656 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$403/yr (+$34/mo · 159.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$253
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,028
• − Management: −$1,028
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,306
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$794
• After-tax cash flow: $3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edenton-Chowan Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,516
• Composite: 32.97/100
• National rank: #5586
• State rank: #118 of 178 in NC

Livability — Cape Colony

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Colony, NC
• Population (ZIP): 12,784

Population outlook (Chowan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,627 people
• By 2030: 13,099 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 11,899 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 10,858 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 9,010 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 7,463 · -45.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chowan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.4% · R 60.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.3pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+15.7 2016: R+14.3 2012: R+4.9 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.59%
• Current HPI: 172.7448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+540.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $80,000 Hive MLS
• 2016-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $253 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.