30 N Ogden St

Buffalo, NY 14206

$168,900B-

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · Built 1901 · MultiFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,113/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $502/mo
• Annual: $6,024/yr
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.74%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $47,292

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $251/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $169k implies a 397% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $2,113/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.