30 N Ogden St · Buffalo, NY 14206

$168,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · MultiFamily · 55 Days on market

Built 1901 4,050 sqft lot Est $149k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• Appreciation +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY! 2/2 FRONT TO REAR DUPLEX. 2 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH IN FRONT, 2 BEDROOM , 2 BATH REAR. NEW ROOF. NEW FURNACE, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL. USED TO BE OWNER OCCUPIED, NOW HAS LONG TERM TENANTS. EXCELLENT RENTS.

Key facts

• 4,050 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1901

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $502 ($6k/yr) — positive. Per door: $251/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,113/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 841% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (8.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $169k implies a 397% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $163,833 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.74%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 N Ogden St	0.00mi	4/4.0	1,775 (0%)	3mo	$157,000	$88	98
34 Schiller St	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-6%)	8mo	$95,000	$57	72
33 Schiller St	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,922 (+8%)	5mo	$60,000	$31	70
293 Ludington St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (-5%)	10mo	$205,000	$121	66
187 Goethe St	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,890 (+6%)	12mo	$77,000	$41	54
238 Schiller St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,894 (+7%)	12mo	$145,000	$77	52
115 Greene St	0.38mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,968 (+11%)	6mo	$165,000	$84	51
108 Moreland St	0.51mi	4/2.0	1,856 (+5%)	12mo	$205,000	$110	51
1068 E Lovejoy St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,661 (-6%)	7mo	$135,000	$81	50
250 Gold St	0.43mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,646 (-7%)	12mo	$190,000	$115	44
1362 Bailey Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,892 (+7%)	5mo	$197,081	$104	43
362 Davey St	0.64mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (-8%)	2mo	$92,000	$56	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $102,215
• Equity at exit: $128,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.77×
• Total profit: $272,898
• Equity at exit: $256,685

Cash invested: $47,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14206

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,534/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $502

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $168,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $619	-5% $560	+0% $502	+5% $444	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $335	-5% $419	+0% $502	+5% $586	+10% $669
Rate	-1.0pp $587	-0.5pp $545	base $502	+0.5pp $458	+1.0pp $414

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	2	$2,114
Total (2 units)			$2,113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,225
• Closing costs: $5,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	45d	1	0.84mi
14 Rutland Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1430	$2,200	$1.54	12d	1	1.09mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-06
   price $168,900
3. 2025-12-11
   listed $169,900 Active
4. 2012-01-31
   soldstatus $34,000 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY! 2/2 FRONT TO REAR DUPLEX. 2 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH IN FRONT, 2 BEDROOM , 2 BATH REAR. NEW ROOF. NEW FURNACE, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL. USED TO BE OWNER OCCUPIED, NOW HAS LONG TERM TENANTS. EXCELLENT RENTS.

5. 2011-09-09
   listed $39,900 229-char remark

   Show marketing remark (229 chars)

   EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITY! 2/2 FRONT TO REAR DUPLEX. 2 BEDROOM 1.5 BATH IN FRONT, 2 BEDROOM , 2 BATH REAR. NEW ROOF. NEW FURNACE, UPDATED PLUMBING AND ELECTRICAL. USED TO BE OWNER OCCUPIED, NOW HAS LONG TERM TENANTS. EXCELLENT RENTS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,356
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,461
• − Property taxes: −$2,534
• − Insurance: −$844
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,028
• − Management: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$4,913
• Taxable income: $3,547
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$851
• After-tax cash flow: $5,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $50,450
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 841.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 25% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.06%
• Current HPI: 457.3935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+323.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $168,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $169,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-01-31 Sold (MLS) $34,000 WNYREIS
• 2011-09-09 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS