930 Rosedale Ave Spc 19

Capitola, CA 95010

$385,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 867 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,197/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-135/mo
• Annual: $-1,621/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $107,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $385k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.0% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in CA, #1,819 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Soquel Union Elementary (suburban): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #302 of 1,400 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Brighton Middle (648 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; list at $385k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Capitola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.