930 Rosedale Ave Spc 19 · Capitola, CA 95010

$385,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 867 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $362k · 6% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• ARV discount +4.7/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CAPITOLA HONEY! Spanking new Palm Harbor m'f'd home. Live close to shopping and the beach. It's ready for you! Vaulted ceilings, dormer windows, and a luxurious soaking tub! It's never been lived in--make it yours! PRICE REDUCED!

Key facts

• Multiple skylights
• Spacious kitchen
• Clerestory windows

Tags

• ONE MILE FROM CAPITOLA BEACH
• BRIGHT OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CLERESTORY WINDOWS
• MULTIPLE SKYLIGHTS
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Master gas meter
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (main entry); Built in 2005
• Construction: Wood siding; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Pantry; Skylight(s)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main entry / street level)
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Dining area; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Skylight(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $365k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.6% in Capitola — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in CA, #1,819 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Soquel Union Elementary (suburban): math 49% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #302 of 1,400 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Brighton Middle (648 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 34 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 224 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Cruz County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $217k; list at $385k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $319,692 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $362,406
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
930 Rosedale Ave #68	0.00mi	2/1.0	858 (-1%)	2mo	$359,000	$418	93
930 Rosedale Ave #64	0.00mi	2/2.0	980 (+13%)	1mo	$369,000	$377	77
2750 Orchard St #5	0.33mi	2/2.0	900 (+4%)	22mo	$450,000	$500	60
4425 Clares #70	0.69mi	2/1.0	800 (-8%)	21mo	$315,000	$394	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-62,429
• Equity at exit: $57,405

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-28,415
• Equity at exit: $33,288

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95010

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$481 /mo · $5,775/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$671
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,368

Max offer price $365,453

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $-2	+0% $-135	+5% $-268	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-261	+0% $-135	+5% $-9	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-37	base $-135	+0.5pp $-235	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
912 Capitola Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,145	$3.15	14d	1	0.14mi
850 Rosedale Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	815	$2,895	$3.55	14d	3	0.19mi
501 Plum St Capitola, CA	1.0	1.0	493	$2,825	$5.73	6d	2	0.30mi
5485 Soquel Dr Soquel, CA	3.0	1.5	1086	$3,565	$3.28	22d	1	0.42mi
600 Park Ave Unit 15a Capitola, CA	1.0	1.0	624	$2,350	$3.77	15d	1	0.43mi
600 Park Ave Unit 1b Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	762	$2,750	$3.61	15d	1	0.43mi
815 Balboa Ave Capitola, CA	2.0	1.5	704	$3,770	$5.36	22d	1	0.53mi
518 Gilroy Dr Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	969	$4,750	$4.90	22d	1	0.54mi
107 Peoples Ln Unit 111 Soquel, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$3,300	$5.08	22d	1	0.58mi
1745 46th Ave Capitola, CA	1.0	1.0	614	$3,380	$5.50	4d	5	0.82mi
1405 45th Ave #4 Capitola, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$3,450	$3.73	6d	1	1.02mi
2500 Soquel Dr Santa Cruz, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$3,381	$3.98	14d	1	1.45mi
3282 Winkle Ave Santa Cruz, CA	1.0	1.0	611	$2,950	$4.83	22d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $385,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $385,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $385,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $385,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $385,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $385,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $385,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $385,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-09
    listed $385,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$5,775
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,069
• − Management: −$3,069
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$8,241
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,978
• After-tax cash flow: $357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soquel Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637290
• Math proficiency: 49% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,999
• Composite: 51.13/100
• National rank: #3779
• State rank: #302 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Capitola

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1819

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Capitola, CA
• County: Santa Cruz County · 225,113 people
• City population: 8,707
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,707
• Household income: $105,236
• Rent vs Own: 51.1% rent · 48.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 299,046 people
• By 2030: 311,246 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 332,813 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 352,797 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 406,837 · +36.0%
• By 2100: 435,763 · +45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+54.4) · D 75.3% · R 20.9% · Other 3.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: 57.7pp · 2024: 54.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+54.4 2020: D+60.3 2016: D+57.3 2012: D+54.1 2008: D+57.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.59%
• Current HPI: 356.4526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.58%
• Metro: Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+73.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $385,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2007-02-09 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2006-11-29 Sold (MLS) $217,000 MLSListings
• 2006-07-12 Listed $222,000 MLSListings

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $626 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.