3830 County Road 4040

Savoy, TX 75491

$225,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,638/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,154/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#870 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Savoy ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #372 of 1,141 in TX (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Savoy El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 187 students, 59% FRL); Savoy H S (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 132 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.