3830 County Road 4040 · Whitewright, TX 75491

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 237 Days on market

Built 1940 3.00 ac lot $167/sqft · 42% below area Est $388k · 42% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the quiet of the countryside with this 3-acre slice of potential. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for a visionary buyer to bring it back to life. Whether you're looking to renovate, rebuild, or start fresh, the land offers a beautiful canvas with mature trees, open space, and endless possibilities. The home itself needs significant TLC, and utilities are currently not turned on. Ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone dreaming of country living with room to grow. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer will need to verify all information.

Key facts

• Open space
• 3 acre slice
• Mature trees

Tags

• 3 ACRE SLICE
• PEACEFUL RURAL SETTING
• MATURE TREES
• OPEN SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.0% in Whitewright — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#457 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Savoy ISD (rural): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #372 of 1,141 in TX (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Savoy El (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 187 students, 59% FRL); Savoy H S (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 132 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Fannin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fannin County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,812 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.83%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $388,386
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: -42.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-42,659
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-45,341
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75491

• Home prices YoY: -8.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,638 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $208,018

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $31	-5% $-32	+0% $-96	+5% $-160	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-226	-5% $-161	+0% $-96	+5% $-31	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $17	-0.5pp $-39	base $-96	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 235 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 234 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 233 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 232 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 231 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 229 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $225,000 Active 228 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 225 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 224 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 223 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $225,000 Active 221 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 219 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 218 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 217 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 216 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 215 DOM
18. 2026-01-05
    price $225,000 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of the countryside with this 3-acre slice of potential. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for a visionary buyer to bring it back to life. Whether you're looking to renovate, rebuild, or start fresh, the land offers a beautiful canvas with mature trees, open space, and endless possibilities. The home itself needs significant TLC, and utilities are currently not turned on. Ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone dreaming of country living with room to grow. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer will need to verify all information.

19. 2025-10-27
    listed $250,000 Active 627-char remark

    Show marketing remark (627 chars)

    Escape to the quiet of the countryside with this 3-acre slice of potential. Nestled in a peaceful rural setting, this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home is ready for a visionary buyer to bring it back to life. Whether you're looking to renovate, rebuild, or start fresh, the land offers a beautiful canvas with mature trees, open space, and endless possibilities. The home itself needs significant TLC, and utilities are currently not turned on. Ideal for investors, DIY enthusiasts, or anyone dreaming of country living with room to grow. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Buyer will need to verify all information.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,118 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,719/yr (+$227/mo · 194.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,657
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$5,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $85/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Savoy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839450
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,326
• Composite: 44.34/100
• National rank: #6144
• State rank: #372 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Whitewright

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #9255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,428

Population outlook (Fannin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,423 people
• By 2030: 33,035 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 32,250 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 31,462 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 29,447 · -11.9%
• By 2100: 25,459 · -23.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fannin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.4) · D 15.9% · R 83.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.8pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -67.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.4 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+52.5 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.85%
• Current HPI: 273.3968
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $250,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.