8078 Aurora Hwy

Hardin, KY 42025

$269,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1992 · Other · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,720/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,179/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (36.3% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hardin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.