8078 Aurora Hwy · Hardin, KY 42025

$269,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Other public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1992 1.97 ac lot $128/sqft · 12% above area Est $274k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a spectacular 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house nestled in the prestigious Fontaine Heights Subdivision. This property offers nearly 2 acres of serene beauty with circle driveway providing a perfect blend of luxury, tranquility, and convenience located near KY Lake, (Kenlake Marina & boat ramp, Fenton boat ramp area less than 3 miles) and nearby schools. Enjoy the comfort of an attached garage. Relax in the 40' x7' sun room that is climate controlled, accessible from the en-suite bedroom, dining area, & rear bedroom. This sunroom seamlessly extending to the rear deck for entertaining & relaxing. The Red Barn/Outbuilding, a 36'x30' to contain your outdoor tools, equipment, lake toys including a bathroom & upstairs area for additional storage space. Buyer verify sq ft & acres.

Key facts

• Nearly 2 acres
• Red barn/outbuilding
• Circle driveway

Tags

• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• NEARLY 2 ACRES
• CLIMATE CONTROLLED SUN ROOM
• RED BARN/OUTBUILDING
• 36X30 OUTDOOR STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (36.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (36.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.0% in Hardin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#476 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,010 (36.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,532
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -1.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $130,001
• Equity at exit: $243,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $395,856
• Equity at exit: $524,356

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,151/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-265

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,055

Max offer price $223,105

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $269,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $269,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $269,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $275,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $275,000 Active 820-char remark

    Show marketing remark (820 chars)

    Welcome to a spectacular 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom house nestled in the prestigious Fontaine Heights Subdivision. This property offers nearly 2 acres of serene beauty with circle driveway providing a perfect blend of luxury, tranquility, and convenience located near KY Lake, (Kenlake Marina & boat ramp, Fenton boat ramp area less than 3 miles) and nearby schools. Enjoy the comfort of an attached garage. Relax in the 40' x7' sun room that is climate controlled, accessible from the en-suite bedroom, dining area, & rear bedroom. This sunroom seamlessly extending to the rear deck for entertaining & relaxing. The Red Barn/Outbuilding, a 36'x30' to contain your outdoor tools, equipment, lake toys including a bathroom & upstairs area for additional storage space. Buyer verify sq ft & acres.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,151 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,170/yr (+$97/mo · 101.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,641
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,151
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$8,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,952
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hardin

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #23849

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $275,000 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,151 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.