14015 Lily Orchard Rd

Big Point, MS 39562

$95,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax + insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $357/mo
• Annual: $4,289/yr
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.12%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $26,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#184 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.