14015 Lily Orchard Rd · Big Point, MS 39562

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,209 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 2013 5.00 ac lot $79/sqft · 57% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers just over 1200 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 5 acre lot, making it a fantastic opportunity for investors, renovators, or anyone looking to create their dream home. With plenty of room to reimagine and customize, this fixer upper is full of potential.

Key facts

• 5 acre lot
• Built 2013
• Listed 146 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $357 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#184 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jackson County School District (rural): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #10 of 130 in MS (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 516 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.12%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,753
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -56.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14416 Lily Orchard Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+9%)	6mo	$218,295	$165	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,404
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $35,896
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39562

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,698/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $384	+0% $357	+5% $331	+10% $304
Rent	-10% $254	-5% $306	+0% $357	+5% $409	+10% $461
Rate	-1.0pp $405	-0.5pp $382	base $357	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 127 DOM
17. 2026-01-22
    listed $95,000 Active 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    This 2 bedroom, 2 bath home offers just over 1200 square feet of living space and sits on a spacious 5 acre lot, making it a fantastic opportunity for investors, renovators, or anyone looking to create their dream home. With plenty of room to reimagine and customize, this fixer upper is full of potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,698 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,698
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,969
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$713
• After-tax cash flow: $3,576/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802160
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,569
• Composite: 43.57/100
• National rank: #2980
• State rank: #10 of 130 in MS

Livability — Big Point

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #17257

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing C Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,142

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,926 people
• By 2030: 148,442 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 149,631 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 148,723 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 147,845 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 144,510 · -1.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.5% · R 69.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+34.6 2016: R+39.9 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.87%
• Current HPI: 182.2784
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Listed $95,000 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,698 · +112.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.