2266 Shoshone Cir

Danville, CA 94526

$1,024,800D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,374
• Tax + insurance: −$1,173
• HOA: −$475
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$892
• Net cashflow: $-3,668/mo
• Annual: $-44,018/yr
• Cap rate: 2.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.34%
• DSCR: 0.32
• 1% rule: 0.41%
• Cash to close: $286,944

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $1.02M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-44k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (63.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $425k (58.6% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.01M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $377k (63.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#79 in CA, #3,007 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• San Ramon Valley Unified (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #28 of 1,400 in CA (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $499k; list at $1.02M implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 1.3% in Danville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.